I’m no expert on dams, hydropower, agriculture or fisheries. Keep that in mind as you read further. But after taking some time to digest the draft agreement to remove dams from the Klamath River, I find good reason to be skeptical about whether this deal is really going to happen.

The Copco 1 Dam on the Klamath River. Photo courtesy U.S. Fish and Wildlife.
Lots And Lots Of Loopholes.
Let’s take a look at what has to happen to make this work. Interior Secretary Salazar has until 2012 to decide if removing the dams is in “the public interest”. Oregon and California have to come up with about $450 million to pay for it, and if the costs go higher, no one knows where the extra money will come from. Plus, Congress has to come up with another $500 million. Finally, the nearly 30 groups that signed on to this draft plan have 60 days to think things over and reconsider their support.
That’s a lot of “ifs” and “buts”.
The only serious progress shown so far is here in Oregon. The state has come up with its share of $200 million by letting Pacific Power (which owns the dams) collect the money from its Oregon customers through a special surcharge. But California is expected to raise $250 million, mostly through bonds, and so far legislators south of the border are having second thoughts about that idea. Considering the budget mess in Sacramento, it’s questionable whether California will come through.
This deal is contingent on approval of a Klamath Basin water sharing agreement. This is a separate and far more controversial process, pitting agriculture against fishermen, environmentalists and other salmon advocates. Oregon Wild, for example, thinks the tentative water sharing deal is far too generous to agriculture and does little to make sure there’s enough water for salmon. Opposition to the water sharing plan could kill any chances of removing the dams, unless somehow the linkage between the two plans is broken.
What’s also not clear to me is what kind of veto power local governments, industry, tribes and environmental groups will have. It’s hard to imagine a coalition of 30 holding together without any dissent. But will a single holdout be able to block the whole deal?
The Deadlines Are Far, Far Away.
Let’s say everything goes according to plan. Even then, work on removing the dams doesn’t begin until 2019 or 2020. That’s long after Obama has left office, even if he wins a second term. A new “dam friendly” Administration or Congress would have time to unravel the agreement. We’ve seen how waiting things out can dramatically change the outcome of big environmental decisions. When the timber industry objected to the Clinton logging plan for the Northwest, it was able to wait until the Bush Administration took over to get better terms for harvesting old growth forests in Oregon. Now that Bush is out of office, that logging plan has been put on hold. So sometimes this strategy works for you, sometimes against you.
Plus, Secretary Salazar has 2 and a half years to decide on removing the dams. His ruling could be influenced by the results of the 2010 elections.
Is The Obama Administration Really Committed To Removing Dams?
The Interior Department had a chance to show some kind of interest in dam removal when it released its plan for salmon recovery in Columbia and Snake rivers. Many environmental groups say removing four dams from the Lower Snake River is essential to help salmon populations bounce back over the long run. Governor Kulongoski says breaching the dams should be considered now, with deadlines to take them out if salmon numbers don’t recover.
This Administration won’t go that far. Instead it only agreed to study how it would study removing the dams. There’s no guarantee that the dams will come down, even if the Obama salmon plan fails.
There are a lot of differences between what’s happening on the Columbia and Snake rivers and what’s happening on the Klamath River. Columbia Basin dams have far more political support than Klamath dams, they produce far more power and provide much more water for drinking, industry and irrigation. There is more widespread interest in removing the dams along the Klamath.
But all of the above suggests Interior is easily influenced by political pressure on the issue of dams. That’s worrisome because it may take strong federal leadership to keep the Klamath dam removal deal from falling apart. I’m not sure the Obama Administration is up to the task.
We have an opportunity to create a 300 mile, dam free stretch of the Klamath River. It will serve as a proving ground to see just how well removing dams will work for salmon, agriculture, and the communities that rely on the water. It could restore one of the great salmon rivers of the West. And if all goes well, will serve as a model for possibly removing dams in the Columbia Basin.