Mt. Hood during the El Nino winter of 2005. No snow chains necessary this far up on Lolo Pass back then.
Sitting in my office with bright sunshine coming through the window, it’s a little hard to see anything wrong with that. Especially in January!
But a new report from Oregon State University warns we may be paying for this great weather somewhere down the road.
Blame it all on El Nino.
California Sea Lion pup. Photo from NOAA.
It’s not as if California Sea Lions are strangers to the Oregon Coast, but this winter they’re showing up in unusually large numbers.
Wildlife officials think the reason is El Nino, the every-so-often warming of the waters of the Pacific Ocean near South and Central America. They say during an El Nino, the prey that sea lions eat are carried northward by changes in ocean currents. So the sea lions are simply following the food.
See the story from the Eugene Register Guard: Surplus of sea lions
Lots of buzz this week about the upcoming winter. If you ride your bicycle year-round, it might be good news. But if you’re a farmer, or a salmon, it’s probably not so good.
This graphic from NOAA shows the winter (December - February) temperature outlook for the Western U.S.
As just released information from NOAA shows, much of Oregon and the Pacific Northwest can expect a winter that will probably be drier and warmer than average.
The blame, if you want to call it that, can be put on El Nino. An El Nino happens when the temperatures of the Pacific Ocean become unusually warm along the equator near South America. That can lead to a change in the direction of the jetstream, and our big Northwest winter storms are pushed south in California.
Much of Northern Oregon can expect a drier than average winter. NOAA Graphic.
According to NOAA, the current El Nino is expected to get stronger and continue through the winter months.
Keep in mind that we’re dealing with averages. Even if these predictions hold up, there’s still a good chance we’ll get big storms. It’s just that they may not be as big or as frequent. Keep the snow chains handy.
While the prospects of a warmer, drier weather may sound good to most of us, there are reasons for concern. Below average rain means below average snowpack, which impacts everything from water supply for humans, irrigation for farmers and river levels for fish. Last winter’s snowpack for the Northwest was also below average, and having two “dry” winters in a row only compounds the problem.
Areas in yellow are "abnormally dry" while tan areas in a "moderate drought". NOAA Graphic
As this NOAA graphic shows, most of Oregon is either abnormally dry or in a drought.
All this depends on how long the El Nino lasts and if it really does get stronger. According to the Columbia Basin Fish and Wildlife Bulletin, forecasters with the University of Washington Climate Impacts Group are calling this a “weak” El Nino which so far has shown no signs of intensifying. But they’re not ruling that out either.
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