Climate Change

It’s a little hard for me to believe that we’ll do nothing to try to slow or stop climate change. But a new study released from the University of Oregon asks, “what if”?

What if we continued going along, business-as-usual? What would be the cost of that?

The answer; $3.3 billion statewide, or $1,930 per household, per year, by 2020.

That figure comes from the UO’s Program on Climate Economics and much of the research was done by the consulting firm, ECONorthwest.

Here’s a breakdown of some of the numbers in the report.

By 2020 we’ll be spending…

$1.4 billion more for energy.

• Almost all of that is the money we’d be wasting by doing nothing new to conserve energy. But the report also says we’ll need more energy to cool buildings during warmer summers, and that reduced snowpack will drive up the costs of hydropower.

$764 million more for health care.

• The report says low level air pollution will make us sicker, so we’ll spend more on health care. Increased sickouts from work and more premature deaths will also be a drag on the economy. An increasing number of heat waves will also drive up health costs.

$632 more to protect salmon.

• Climate change will warm temperatures in our rivers and streams, will which hurt salmon populations. The report assumes we love our salmon so much we’ll be willing to spend that amount of money to protect salmon stocks.

Other costs include spending more money to fight wildfires, and to clean up after floods and major storms. We’ll lose money because of reduced farm production. And perhaps the worst part of all, we won’t be having so much fun. Reduced snowpack will mean fewer days to go skiing, and warmer temps in rivers and streams means there will be fewer fish to catch.

And if that wasn’t bad enough, the report says $3.3 billion is probably an underestimate. It says trends in global warming appear to be worse than expected, so the real cost could be much higher. Either way, climate change costs are expected to triple by 2080 under this “do nothing” scenario.

Just so our friends north of us don’t feel left out, the UO also crunched the numbers for Washington state. The conclusion? Climate change will cost you $3.8 billion per year by 2020, or about $1,250 per household.

Best selling author Andy Hoffman speaks next week at the University of Oregon on climate change and its impact on business.

Hoffman literally wrote the book on the topic, “Climate Change: What’s Your Business Strategy (Memo to the CEO).”

The lecture is free and takes place from 5:30 to 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Feb. 17, at the Lillis Business Complex.

By Dennis Newman

New research from Oregon State University and the University of Toronto challenges one of the assumptions about global warming and its impact around the world.

This story starts in the south polar region where a huge sheet of ice, known as the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, is in danger of melting or collapsing because of global warming. This sheet is roughly 6000 feet thick and covers an area the size of Texas.

If it were to fall apart, the volume of ice and water released into the oceans would be enormous, enough to raise sea levels 16 to 17 feet.

The twist in the new research being published today is this: not all parts of the globe will be affected equally. Oregon, along with the rest of North America, will see some of the greatest increases in ocean levels. One of the authors of the study, Peter Clark of OSU, says water levels along the West Coast could rise as much as 22 feet, or 5-6 feet above the worldwide average. Other areas of the globe, such as Antarctica, could see the oceans drop.

“We aren’t suggesting that a collapse of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet is imminent,” according to Clark, “But these findings do suggest that if you are planning for sea level rise, you had better plan a little higher.”

This image from the Center For The Remote Sensing Of Ice Sheets shows what a 6 meter rise in sea levels would do to the Southeastern US. Major cities such as Miami and New Orleans would be flooded. This study suggests the oceans could rise another foot or more higher than shown on this map.

So why won’t the impact be felt the same around the world? Turns out this isn’t as simple as dropping a large boulder into a small pond, where water levels would spread out equally.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is so massive, it has its own gravitational pull, drawing the oceans towards it. This is similar to how the Moon creates tides. As a result we have lower sea levels along North America.

If the ice sheet is gone, so too is its gravitational pull. Oregon and the rest of North America will feel the impact more because gravity is no longer holding back some of the water.

There are other forces at work here, too. Clark and his colleagues believe the melting on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet could change the Earth’s orientation to the Sun. And that would have its own impact on sea levels.

The study, “The Sea-Level Fingerprint of West Antarctic Collapse” will be published Friday in the journal Science.

If you’re reading this blog, chances are you have a basic understanding of climate change and how it might affect weather patterns across the globe.

But what does that mean for your neighborhood?

A report from the University of Oregon tries to answer that question for Southwest Oregon and the Rogue River Basin.

The UO scientists took three well known global models used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and scaled them down to see how the climate of SW Oregon will change in the next 30-70 years.

They conclude that cities such as Ashland, Grants Pass and Medford are going to see climates that are similar to what Sacramento, Calif. experiences now. That means hotter, drier summers with a greater risk for wildfires. By 2080, summer temps could be an average 7-15 degrees warmer than they are now. It also could mean rainier and stormier winters, with less valuable snowpack.

The report, authored by Bob Doppelt and Roger Hamilton with UO’s Climate Leadership Initiative (among others), says local governments need to start planning now. Among the recommendations, that people and buildings be moved away from areas most prone to flooding and fires.

The impact on agriculture could be dramatic. The area’s famous Pinot Noir grapes and Pears may not adapt to the climate changes and might have to be transplanted further north or closer to the coast.

If the report’s predictions come true, they could spell serious trouble for the Marbled Murrelet and Spotted Owl. Their habitat of old growth forests would be more vulnerable to wildfires.

The authors will also release reports on Oregon’s Upper Willamette, Klamath and Umatilla river basins.